It gets cold in winter. That's hardly news. But anyone who lives in Michigan can tell you not all winters are created equal. Some winters are brutal in terms of snow and temperatures and some, like the winter of 2023 come off as relatively mild.

How will the winter of 2024-25 be? It's yet to be seen, but one long range study cautions Michigan should brace for extreme cold in January.

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The winter started out in early December with a storm that brought thundersnow to the West Michigan cities of Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids while isolated spots in the Upper Peninsula saw upwards of 5 feet of snow.

What could drive a January deep freeze is something happening deep in the northern arctic regions of the globe. The Midwest Weather Facebook page looked at a potential stratospheric warming at the end of December and lingering into January.

What exactly does a warming of the stratosphere have to do with colder temperatures across the Great Lakes? That warming high up in the atmosphere would create a ridge across the arctic that would funnel some of the planet's coldest air down from far northern Canada and the Arctic Ocean down towards Michigan.

This is the weather of the polar vortex. Some forecasters say the vortex is at a 40 year weak point and if the stratospheric warming disrupts it, that's what sends the air rushing south. Here it is in layman's terms:

READ MORE: See and Hear Intense Thundersnow Erupt Across West Michigan

a Stratospheric Warming drives down cold, arctic air from the north pole - it disrupts the polar vortex, sending down arctic air. The "warming" part is happening in the upper atmosphere, which displaces said cold air

Yes, and the polar vortex is already disrupted, and hasn't taken much to get polar air to come down.

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It's something to pay attention to in the next few weeks as we pass through the holiday season and flip the calendar to 2025.

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